Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commi sion if you sign up through our links. Read our for more information. The Mets host the Pirates at Citi Field on Tuesday for the of a three-game set and weve got an exciting pitching matchup on our hands. Pittsburghs Jared Jones is flashing elite stuff in his rookie year the type of stuff that could make him a future ace. Jared Jones will give up some homers because he pounds the zone with fastballs, but fixating on that is mi sing the forest for the trees. MLB ranks through 3 starts: Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) Meanwhile, Jose Quintana has posted a rock-solid 3.55 ERA through his first 16 starts in Queens. However, I worry about whether Quintanas succe s is sustainable. Explore More Pirates vs Mets odds Team Moneyline Spread Total Team Moneyline Spread Total Pirates +100 +1.5 (-205) o7.5 (-105) Mets -120 -1.5 (+170) u7.5 (-115) Odds via Mets vs. Pirates prediction (7:10 p.m. ET, SNY) Through his first three starts in 2024, Quintana pairs his 3.45 ERA with a 6.03 expected ERA. Why is that? It all starts with his fastball mix. Quintanas sinker and four-seam have lost Rudy Gobert Jersey significant velocity over the past few seasons, so hes now mi sing fewer bats and allowing harder contact the southpaw ranks among the bottom 25 percent of qualified pitchers in chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate allowed. His inability to force whiffs and weak contact has forced Quintana to nibble around the edges, so hes walked eight batters in 15 innings to start the season. Quintanas ERA hasnt exploded yet because hes stranded 85% of runners. Once that number regre ses closer to the average (around 70%), more runs will come around and New Yorks lefty will lose more games. While I project significant negative regre sion for Quintana, I project significant positive regre sion for Jones. Jones boasts a 149 Stuff+ mark on his upper 90s fastball, which ranks first among starting pitchers this season. The pitch has an excellent ride, and he keeps it in the upper third of the zone, where batters swing right under it for a 21% swinging-strike rate. He pairs that fastball with a slider with a 124 Stuff+ mark and a near-50% whiff rate, creating a dangerous two-pitch mix. As a result, Jones has struck out 35% of batters in his early career. Even better, hes only walked 3%, so hes commanding and controlling well for a rookie. Jones throws hard and gives up his fair share of fly balls, so homers will be a problem. However, I hardly expect him to carry a 22% HR-to-fly-ball rate for an entire season, so his current 4.00 ERA is inflated. Jared Jones is off to a strong start for the Pirates. Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports Instead, I believe his 3.40 expected ERA and 2.40 expected FIP are more in line with his potential ace status. Striking out everyone and walking no one is a great way to pitch. So, as you probably inferred, I give the Pirates a significant starting pitching advantage Tuesday. However, I also give the Pirates a . Both teams boast strong relief corps, but the Pirates are slightly more rested. The Mets three highest-leverage relievers Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley all threw around 30 pitches on Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh closer David Bednar hasnt pitched since Friday, while set-up man Collin Holderman has thrown only 31 pitches over the past week. These two lineups project similarly, with both boasting around league-average metrics. Meanwhile, the weather report looks bleak for hitting, as were expecting mid-60s temps with winds blowing in toward home plate. As a result, BallParkPal projects a -17% run factor for Tuesdays game i.e., we should expect a 17% decrease in the run-scoring environment based on weather conditions. Therefore, Ill back the better starter and more-rested bullpen in what should be a pitchers duel at Citi Field. Getting the Pirates as an underdog is a bonus. Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting Read about the Learn all about Pirates vs. Mets pick Pirates ML (-102, ) | Play to (-110) Andrei Kirilenko Jersey